Professionals and prognosticators are always trying to predict the future. What’s next for stocks, fashion, the Web, etc. For online professionals, the question is more narrow. Who will be the next Google? What will be the next trend to take the Internet by storm?

I have no crystal ball, but in keeping with Flat Creek’s perspective that the old rules still apply, even in the face of exciting new technology, I believe the next wave of online success will not be new applications or features but more likely adoption of existing technologies. The ones who make money aren’t the ones on the cutting edge of a brand new idea. They are the second generation who gets the idea right.

Look at Facebook as an example. Friendster introduced the Web to the new concept of social networking, but just now Facebook (and it’s grown-up cousin LinkedIn) are really starting to hit their stride. The reason? There are two steps to every great product success:

1. Introduction
2. Adoption

Introduction happens when a new product or idea hits the marketplace. Think VCRs or PDAs. But it took years for those things to be adopted as an industry. Often the first movers (such as Friendster) were crushed and follow-up companies (such as Facebook) took all the glory. Yahoo was a big mover in introducing “search” to the Internet. Yahoo is now a distant second to Google, who came along with a better product and fast adoption.

Today, we see the widespread adoption of social media - blogs, for instance. The next wave of adoption will probably take place where exciting products are still being introduced - namely, mobile devices. As consumers, carriers, and device makers all step up to the plate, mobile data adoption will follow in a cycle of growth. What will likely not grow are podcasts. Just as with cell phones, quality is key to product adoption. Podcasts just don’t have the quality products or content to make it to the mainstream. Mobile TV, however, is a great new addition and will likely grow as new products are adopted.

Do you know what’s next in your industry? Contact us. We might have an idea or two.

Just had a great conversation with a reporter who asked if we work on WAP websites. Well, as I told her, we don’t anymore. WAP sites have become absorbed in the greater web accessibility movement. Whether you call it 508 compliant, liquid design, or device independent, today’s websites should be able to show up on a PC, Mac, Nokia, BlackBerry, or kiosk equally well.

The source of this ability is liquid design, which uses XHTML and CSS, two complementary technologies that make web pages both easier to download and update. Liquid design separates the content of a page from it’s design, or layout. So instead of being stuck in a table, the site is fluid, able to rearrange itself and mold to the screen.

Take for example the recent website we launched for former Congressman Bob Beauprez: www.alineofsight.com. A Line of Sight was created to provide policymakers with resources that may be helpful in a pinch, such as just before a vote or on the way to an event. With limited time, these policymakers get their information one way: via BlackBerry. So not only does the site need to look good on a desktop, it needs to be user-friendly on the small screen.

So we used liquid design, which helps the site mold to BlackBerry and Windows Mobile devices with ease. The simple text of the page is in one file, and the design/placement of that content is in another file. The text file references the design file to figure out how to display correctly, no matter what size screen it’s headed for.

So that begs the question: is your site mobile ready? Bank of America just announced that they are adding a feature to allow customers to access account information via cell phones. Yahoo! continues to update its mobile device offerings, called Yahoo! Go 2.0. Google’s homepage has long been accessible via cell phone and PDA, and the search leader is now offering lots of stuff for cell and PDA, such as e-mail and maps. Europeans have used cell phones for web surfing for years, and now Americans are quickly catching up.

So is your site mobile ready? I sure hope so…

Blackberry devices are popular not only for their ergonomic design and handy thumb keyboard but also because they push e-mail to your device as soon as it arrives. Other devices have to pull e-mail from a server at set intervals, making it hard to have an e-mail conversation when your e-mail only comes in every 10 minutes or so.

Now, according to PC World, Nokia is getting into the push e-mail game with a FREE service for one year that pushes e-mail to your Nokia phone. This is interesting on two levels - 1) By offering it for free, a lot of people are going to try it out just to see how it works, and 2) Blackberry devices work best in corporate environments where users have a Microsoft Exchange e-mail server, but a lot of small businesses don’t have Exchange, they use POP and IMAP. The Nokia service is only for POP and IMAP accounts.

For small business owners, this means a great alternative to $30-$60 per month for Blackberry service, although users have to decide if switching devices is worth it. Those Blackberry keyboards are nice, and crunching out e-mails on a phone keypad and tiny screen would be mind numbing. While Nokia supports older models that have full QWERTY keyboards, they only have a couple of current models with one (the 9500 at $799.99 and the 6820 for free with a new contract).

So ultimately, if you have a Nokia phone that works with the service, it’s free so why not try it out. It may be well suited just to keep track of what’s coming in your inbox, even jotting down a quick response occasionally. But if you need two-way e-mail capability, it may be worthwile to wait and see how Microsoft’s Mobile 5.0 shapes up…

As RIM continues to sweep up the mobile device marketing, Microsoft has announced that they will offer push e-mail themselves, but not until October. This delayed response may be due to extensive testing, but whatever the reason it may be too late. Too many companies have either commited or are going to commit to RIM in the near future. The BlackBerry maker’s Q2 results may be interesting to look at, given that Microsoft announced their intentions to produce a push product sometime ago.

Tech Ed: Microsoft plans mobile e-mail push upgrade - Computerworld

As anticipated, Microsoft this week launched the latest version of its Pocket PC operating system, Windows Mobile 5.0. Reaction has varied from its impact on the cell phone market to the portable multimedia market.

For small business owners, the new OS means more options for software and hardware to meet specific industry needs, specifically for sales professionals and field technicians. There are also expanded mobile e-mail solutions, including a push e-mail functionality with Exchange that should give RIM a run for their money. According to PC World, users will be able to use a landscape display, making it easier to view Web pages. Also Nextel users will enjoy a new “push-to-talk” compatibility. Apparently Microsoft is aggressively encouraging developers to create 5.0 applications through a $25,000 contest.

As a longtime user of T-Mobile’s Pocket PC (no longer available), I like being able to edit Word and Excel documents from my handheld, only once I loaded the file back to my desktop, the formatting was gone, including any graphics. Windows Mobile 5.0 will correct that issue. While everything soulds great, we’ll have to see how the system works in the field before offering a recommendation.

eWeek is reporting that Microsoft “is poised to launch this month the next version of its mobile operating system, Windows Mobile 2005, which will incorporate push e-mail capabilities with Microsoft Exchange Server.” This will dramatically alter the purchase decision for companies looking to deploy wirelesses devices.

RIM has always been the favorite because it can push e-mails to the device as soon as they hit the server whereas Pocket PCs and Treos must be set to check for new messages at a certain time interval. Since Pocket PC has far superior supporting software (calendar, contacts, tasks, Pocket Word, Pocket Excel, etc) to RIM, then the ability to push e-mail will make them much more attractive devices.

Now, if someone could just put together a decent keyboard… RIM still has the edge on that feature.

There’s a good reason they are called “Crackberries.” The tiny black or blue devices with the handy keyboard keep us in touch even when we probably shouldn’t be reachable. My wife was only mildly annoyed by my addiction until the Sunday morning when I started replying to e-mails at church. I have since moved over to T-Mobile’s Pocket PC phone, which was really the only wireless data device besides RIM’s Blackberry that was on the market at the time. Since then we’ve seen an explosion of devices - the Treo, the XDA II, the Siemens SX66 (also known as the Audiovox XV6600), the Samsung phones, etc, etc. And of course, most are available from any carrier, which brings a new complexity to the purchase decision.

How does a small company decide where to go? Do you like the Blackberry’s keyboard? Do you like Pocket PC’s applications and storage? Do you like the Treo’s tiny hybrid of the two? Then once you pick a model, do you go with Verizon’s coverage or T-Mobile’s value? Cingular is the service of choice on Capitol Hill so you certainly have to take their plan into account… Arrrgh!

If you know where there is a good online tool to help with this decision making process, I would love to hear about it. CNET.com took a shot at analyzing several new convergence devices, but there’s got to be something better out there… something more like a Q&A wizard…

This has continually been a stumbling block as we try to help small businesses who need the functionality but are afraid to make a decision without knowing all the options. Thanks in advance for your help!